Smart Grid Ready Controls' Effect of Heat Pumps on Operational Carbon Emissions

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Smart Grid Ready (SGR) control strategies on reducing the operational carbon emissions of air-to-water heat pumps in residential buildings across Germany, Denmark, and France. Using dynamic energy simulations that incorporate both real-time and predictive grid carbon intensity data, the research compares perfect and data-informed demand response approaches for heat pump operation. Results demonstrate that SGR controls, especially with perfect day-ahead forecasting, can shift heat pump operation to periods of lower grid carbon intensity, leading to reductions in the carbon intensity of electricity consumed by HVAC systems of up to 3%, with the most substantial gains observed in Germany (a decrease of 14 gCO₂/kWh in 2022). However, absolute reductions in operational carbon emissions remain less than 2.6%, partly due to slight increases in electricity demand caused by higher storage temperatures during load shifting. Furthermore, the study highlights that optimizing PV system sizing, based on self-production and grid liability metrics, is crucial for effective renewable energy integration, which yields a lower PV capacity than traditional Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB) methodologies suggest. These findings highlight the importance of advanced, context-sensitive control algorithms and integrated design for achieving meaningful carbon mitigation in grid-interactive, renewable-powered residential buildings.